AI and Tech Promise Solutions to Climate Change While Impacting the Environment -- But That Can Change
ChatGPT launched in 2022. Two years later, given its widespread adoption and the media’s nearly endless fascination with artificial intelligence topics, it feels as though large language models have been in our daily lives forever. Meanwhile, a divide in the national discourse continues to widen. One camp worries that AI will steal jobs and endanger humanity. Another promises a digital utopia, where exponential technologies save the planet. It’s here where an interesting yet seldom discussed intersection exists: yes, AI may have capabilities to help curb the devastating effects of climate change, but it’s also a heavy contributor to those same problems.
A Crisis of Environmental, Social, and Economic Proportions
While the environmental consequences are well-documented, the economic impact is only beginning to surface. A recent study published in the journal Nature paints a sobering picture: the average global income is predicted to fall by 19% before 2049 as a direct result of climate change. Average world incomes will plummet nearly a fifth within the next 26 years. This is a staggering statistic, and it should serve as a wake-up call to policymakers, businesses, and individuals alike.
“Rising temperatures, heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense extreme weather are projected to cause $38tn (£30tn) of destruction each year by mid-century, according to the research, which is the most comprehensive analysis of its type ever undertaken, and whose findings are published in the journal Nature,” the Guardian reported.
“The study also looked at the second half of this century, where human actions now can still make a big difference,” the Guardian noted. “If business as usual continues, the authors projected average income losses of more than 60% by 2100. But if emissions fall to net zero by mid century, income declines will stabilise by mid century at about 20%.”
The impact will not be evenly distributed. Developing countries, which are already struggling with poverty and inequality, will be hit the hardest. The study predicts that incomes in these countries will plummet by an even greater margin than the global average. Even developed nations will not be spared, with incomes expected to fall by 11%.
The implications for the future of employment are stark. Climate change will trigger a domino effect, disrupting industries, displacing workers, and creating new challenges for the job market. Here's a closer look at some of the key areas that will be impacted.
- Agriculture: Climate change is expected to have a devastating impact on agriculture. Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events will lead to crop failures, reduced yields, and food insecurity. This will not only affect farmers’ livelihoods but also disrupt global food supply chains, impacting jobs in transportation, logistics, and retail.
- Infrastructure: Climate change will put a strain on infrastructure systems around the world. Rising sea levels, more frequent floods, and extreme weather events will damage roads, bridges, buildings, and power grids. This will necessitate significant investments in infrastructure repair and rebuilding, creating new jobs in construction and engineering. However, it will also lead to job losses in sectors that rely on existing infrastructure, such as transportation and tourism.
- Energy: The transition to a low-carbon economy will create new opportunities in renewable energy sectors like solar, wind, and geothermal. Jobs will be needed in the development, manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of renewable energy technologies. However, this transition will also lead to job losses in the fossil fuel industry. The challenge will be to reskill and upskill workers in these sectors to prepare them for the new green economy.
- Insurance: Climate change will lead to an increase in extreme weather events, which will result in higher insurance claims. This will create new opportunities for the insurance industry, but it will also make insurance more expensive for businesses and individuals.
- Public Health: Climate change will have a significant impact on public health. Rising temperatures will exacerbate the spread of vector-borne diseases, while extreme weather events will displace populations and disrupt access to clean water and sanitation. This will create new demands for healthcare workers, but it will also strain healthcare systems, potentially leading to job cuts.
- Migration: Climate change will displace millions of people around the world. Rising sea levels, desertification, and extreme weather events will force people to leave their homes in search of safety and security. This mass migration will put a strain on social services and infrastructure in host countries, but it could also create new opportunities in sectors such as construction and hospitality.
The Role of AI and Exponential Technologies in Climate Change
Businesses like Microsoft, Google, and Salesforce are rushing to incorporate AI into their solutions. Scientists believe these technologies can assist humans in conquering the barriers that are preventing us from controlling the rampant spread of climate change and detrimental emissions. But at the same time, the machines themselves are polluting.
“The Earth is facing an imminent risk of crossing tipping points in its life support systems,” the World Economic Forum reported. “When that happens, self-reinforcing cycles will kick in that could potentially lead to a ‘hothouse Earth’ state.”
The digital sector represents a key industry in this debate. It’s on track to reduce its own emissions, which represent 1.4% of the global total, and it has the opportunity to cut global emissions in half by 2030 while driving exponential growth in data performance. Some in the digital sector have also assumed the mantle of strong leaders in championing the demand for 100% renewable energy.
“Our assessment, as laid out in the Exponential Climate Action Roadmap, is that digital technologies could already help reduce global carbon emissions by up to 15% – or one-third of the 50% reduction required by 2030 – through solutions in energy, manufacturing, agriculture and land use, buildings, services, transportation and traffic management,” wrote the World Economic Forum. “This corresponds to more than the current carbon footprints of the EU and the US combined. But it is through the Fourth Industrial Revolution – particularly 5G, the Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) – that the digital sector can take the pace of change to the next level.”
Jim Bellingham, executive director of the Johns Hopkins Institute for Assured Autonomy, also believes that technology has an instrumental role to play in solving the climate crisis — particularly through AI.
“Climate data sets are enormous and take significant time to collect, analyze, and use to make informed decisions and enact actual policy change,” Bellingham explained. “Using AI to factor in elements of climate change that are constantly evolving helps us make more informed predictions about changes in the environment, so that we can deploy mitigation efforts earlier.”
“AI is one tool that provides insights into where uncertainties come from related to climate change and that can help us understand what the models are telling us, which can feed back into better observation programs, improving the models, and even using AI as part of the model system,” he added. “Another application of AI to climate change is how satellites orbiting in space are used to make observations and assess changes to the Earth. Satellites can help monitor forest fires and determine potential sources of carbon dioxide that are found in the environment.”
On the other hand, big tech is also one of the biggest producers of carbon emissions, as a study published by Electronics Hub demonstrated. Of the Big Five tech companies, Amazon emerged as the largest polluter: “Amazon produced over 16 million metric tons of CO2 in 2021–nearly 20 times the carbon footprint of Microsoft, which polluted least out of the 5. That said, Microsoft’s carbon footprint is still pretty big–at nearly 870,000 metric tons, it’s about as big a polluter as the population of Rhode Island.”
Technology’s Filthy Footprint
The revelation of crypto-assets’ impact on the environment shone a stark spotlight on the tech space in general. In September 2022, the White House issued a fact sheet on “Climate and Energy Implications of Crypto-Assets in the United States,” accompanied by an executive order to ensure the ecologically responsible development of digital assets. The boom in cryptocurrency mining offered a dire example:
“Global electricity generation for the crypto-assets with the largest market capitalizations resulted in a combined 140 ± 30 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year (Mt CO2/y), or about 0.3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions. Crypto-asset activity in the United States is estimated to result in approximately 25 to 50 Mt CO2/y, which is 0.4% to 0.8% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This range of emissions is similar to emissions from diesel fuel used in railroads in the United States.”
Energy Monitor’s Oliver Gordon also provided equally troubling data: “Although estimates of the total environmental footprint of all crypto assets vary, it is thought that the electricity demand of Bitcoin alone exceeded 13GW, with an associated carbon footprint of more than 65 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), in 2021. That demand is just over half that of all global data centres combined and represents nearly 0.5% of global electricity consumption. The associated carbon footprint is bigger than the global CO2 reduction created by all electric vehicles. On top of that, other cryptocurrencies were estimated – prior to the Merge – to add another 50% to Bitcoin’s energy demand.”
“Popular large language models (LLMs) like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Bard are energy intensive, requiring massive server farms to provide enough data to train the powerful programs. Cooling those same data centers also makes the AI chatbots incredibly thirsty. New research suggests training for GPT-3 alone consumed 185,000 gallons (700,000 liters) of water. An average user’s conversational exchange with ChatGPT basically amounts to dumping a large bottle of fresh water out on the ground, according to the new study. Given the chatbot’s unprecedented popularity, researchers fear all those spilled bottles could take a troubling toll on water supplies, especially amid historic droughts and looming environmental uncertainty in the US.”
That’s just an overview of ChatGPT. Identical water consumption issues affect every organization developing AI and large language models.
“In 2019,” DeGeurin noted, “Google requested more than 2.3 billion gallons of water for data centers in just three states. The company currently has 14 data centers spread out across North America which it uses to power Google Search, its suite of workplace products, and more recently, its LaMDA and Bard large language models. LaMDA alone, according to the recent research paper, could require millions of liters of water to train, larger than GPT-3 because several of Google’s thirsty data centers are housed in hot states like Texas; researchers issued a caveat with this estimation, though, calling it an ‘approximate reference point.’”
Over 2.2 million U.S. residents lack water and basic indoor plumbing, based on World Economic Forum data. Another 44 million live with inadequate water systems. By 2071, with rising temperatures and droughts — influenced by human activity — 50% of the nation’s 204 freshwater basins won’t be able to meet monthly supply demands.
“AI’s hefty water demands will likely become a growing point of contention, especially if the tech is embedded into ever more sectors and services,” DeGeurin cautioned. “Data requirements for LLMs are only getting larger, which means companies will have to find ways to increase their data centers’ water efficiency.”
Despite Salesforce's Claims, You Can't Buy Your Way to Green
In 2015, Xerox reported that its teleworkers drove 92 million fewer miles, cutting carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 41,000 metric tons. Unlike corporate sustainability programs that attempt to achieve green status by planting trees and purchasing carbon offsets, the lack of commuting during remote work made a material dent in pollution. But with 90% of businesses wanting people driving back to brick-and-mortar facilities, tree planting and carbon offsets are the big strategies for big companies. Sadly, as Greenpeace noted, “The biggest problem with carbon offsetting is that it doesn’t really work.”
Carbon Offset Initiatives May Be Off the Mark
“Companies love talking about carbon offsetting, Alia al Ghussain wrote in her article for Greenpeace. “But to be serious about tackling climate change, they need to stop carbon emissions from getting into the atmosphere in the first place.”
“Offsetting is a way of paying for others to reduce emissions or absorb CO2 to compensate for your own emissions,” she added. “For example, by planting trees to suck carbon out of the atmosphere as they grow, or by delivering energy-efficient cooking stoves to communities in developing countries. Sounds great, right? Sadly, the way out of the climate emergency is just not that simple.”
Purchasing carbon offsets is more a gesture than a solution because these offsets don’t physically reduce carbon emissions entering the atmosphere. They are not tangible measures to curb pollution as opposed to energy efficiency, renewable power sources, expanding forests, and decreasing reliance on fossil fuels.
An investigation by journalists at The Guardian in 2023 found that more than 90% of carbon credits sold by Verra, the world’s largest carbon offsetting certifier, did not reduce emissions.
Tatiana Lebreton of ecoexperts, clarified that “carbon offsetting relies on the assumption that an equivalent (or greater) amount of CO2 is being removed than the amount being produced. But in most cases, carbon offsetting projects overestimate their impact.” In other words, carbon offsets can’t accomplish their stated goals if the carbon emissions happen elsewhere anyway.
In his editorial for the New York Times, Dr. Zeke Hausfather, a climate researcher, said, “We have a saying in the climate science world: ‘Carbon is forever.’ Around 20 percent of the carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere today will still be in the atmosphere many thousands of years from now. This means that to effectively undo emissions, the carbon we take out of the atmosphere needs to stay out.”
Planting Trees? A Great Start with a Very Long Lead Time
So what about the whole planting trees idea? It is a good idea. However, “A newly-planted tree can take as many as 20 years to capture the amount of CO2 that a carbon-offset scheme promises,” al Ghussain explained. “We would have to plant and protect a massive number of trees for decades to offset even a fraction of global emissions. Even then, there is always the risk that these efforts will be wiped out by droughts, wildfires, tree diseases and deforestation.”
Dr. Hausfather expanded on that sentiment, saying, “For carbon to be permanently removed by planting trees, forests would have to remain in place for thousands of years. On top of that, the trees would have to be planted on land that would have been forest-free for those same thousands of years had the trees not been planted.”
“Companies using trees to offset their emissions often sign a 40-year contract,” he continued. “But the companies selling and buying carbon credits may not be around in 40 years. There is a real risk that no one will be left holding the bag if tree plantations are clear-cut for development, go up in flames or are devoured by mountain pine beetles a few decades hence. In short, the timelines over which carbon removal needs to occur are fundamentally inconsistent with the planning horizons of private companies today.”
Genuine Solutions for Removing Carbon Emissions
To truly remove carbon emissions means just that: removing the sources of carbon emissions and replacing them with sustainable, renewable alternatives. Yet there’s no simple solution before us given the ideological divides on the matter and the inevitable disruption that would come with implementing those solutions, even though they will create millions of new jobs and protect the planet. Which brings me back around to the RTO debate. Tree planting sounds idyllic and carbon offsets sound committed, but we know they won’t really cut down on emissions. Reducing the daily commutes of our workers, on the other hand, can directly and physically contribute to curbing pollution.
Ethereum Leads the Charge for Blockchain
Some tech pioneers realized early on that saving the planet and improving livelihoods meant not contributing to the same problems. Ethereum, perhaps the most popular cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin, managed to cut its electricity consumption by 99.84% — a reduction equivalent to the annual power requirements of Ireland or Austria — through an event called the Merge. It replaced the blockchain’s “proof-of-work” (PoW) mining mechanism with an alternative coined “proof-of-stake” (PoS).
With PoS, Energy Monitor’s Oliver Gordon explained, “the network does not incentivise participants, or ‘minters’, to compete on computational power to create new blocks. Instead, the block selection process is primarily based on wealth. Minters must buy some of the native currency from a cryptocurrency platform, which is then used as collateral in the ‘staking’ process – a minimum of 32 units of Ether, in Ethereum’s case. The software then randomly chooses a “staker” to create the next block for the blockchain. The larger the amount staked, the greater the chance of being chosen. While minters still need a device with sufficient storage capacity and an active internet connection, the computational power of the device is irrelevant. This negates the need for vast mining networks of electricity-gorging computers.”
Improving Sustainability for LLM Training
Researchers believe there are simple yet critical steps those involved in training large language models can take.
- Location matters. Outside temperatures affect the amount of water required to cool data centers. Choosing cooler regions for data center housing could reduce the need for more water in cooling systems.
- Time matters. Training AI models at night, when temperatures drop, could cut down on water consumption and improve water efficiency. Models could restrict full usage until water-efficient hours. Similar practices exist for off-hours appliance usage in certain European countries.
- Partners matter. AI developers should enforce transparency and sustainability plans from any third parties they rely on for colocation, data collection, public cloud hosting, and more.
Embrace Work from Home Arrangements
Employees in the United States who worked from home all the time were predicted to reduce their emissions by 54%, compared with workers in an office, according to research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Fewer cars on the road, lowered energy consumption from less commercial office space use, and less waste all contribute to the ecological benefits of remote work.
The telecommuting policies of Dell, Aetna, and Xerox saved 95,294 metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2015. Today, as 90% of business leaders move forward with Return to Office mandates, we could be taking a big step backward from sustainability.
Coursera CEO Jeff Maggioncalda quipped in an interview that he doesn’t even know where most of his staff are at any given moment. His $2.6 billion online-learning company, whose profits increased by 23% from last year, has a “remote-first” policy. He says the business retains talent for longer and finds it easier to hire high-quality candidates. It makes sense, when you consider how expensive RTO has become for workers with rising gas prices, child care costs, vehicle maintenance, and so on. In speaking with CNBC, OwlLabs CEO Frank Weishaupt declared “There’s no question” working from the office is "wildly more expensive” today than it was before the pandemic. Workers polled said they now spend $51 each day on average when they go into work, $31 more than if they were doing their job from home.
Dave Rietsema is the Founder and CEO of Matchr.com, a Human Resources software company. He told TheStreet’s Michael Tedder: “Companies can save up to $11,000 per employee in terms of overhead costs if they switch to remote work. This is because companies with remote workers pay less in overhead costs such as utilities and resources for in-office employees as well as just needing less office space.”
Environmentally Responsible Practices in Tech and AI
It's not rocket science, so much as best practices and common sense, but tech and AI companies can tackle carbon emissions from a couple of angles: reducing their own footprint and using their expertise to create solutions for others.
Reducing Their Own Footprint
- Measure and Optimize: The first step is to understand your company's carbon footprint. This includes emissions from data centers, offices, and the energy used to train and run AI models. Tools like the Software Carbon Intensity specification can help with this.
- Energy Efficiency: Once you know where the emissions come from, focus on making your operations more energy-efficient. This could involve using renewable energy sources for data centers, optimizing code for AI models to run faster, and implementing smart building technologies to reduce energy use in offices.
- Hardware Efficiency: Research into developing more energy-efficient hardware specifically designed for AI applications can significantly reduce the environmental impact of training and running AI models.
Creating Solutions for Others
AI can be a powerful tool for reducing emissions across various sectors.
- Smart Energy Management: AI can analyze energy usage patterns and optimize energy consumption in buildings, factories, and power grids.
- Supply Chain Optimization: AI can help optimize logistics and transportation routes, reducing fuel consumption and emissions.
- Circular Economy: AI can be used to develop and implement circular economy initiatives, where materials are reused and recycled, minimizing waste and associated emissions.
- Predictive Maintenance: AI can predict equipment failures, allowing for preventive maintenance and reducing energy wasted due to malfunctioning systems.
Climate Change Is Our Biggest Threat: We Must Make Big Life Changes
Climate change is a complex issue with far-reaching consequences. While the potential impact on our economies and societies is significant, we’re not inexorably fated to a dystopian future unless we decide to maintain the current status quo. By acknowledging the challenges, we can build a more resilient and sustainable work environment for generations to come.
- Workers: Take charge of your career development by proactively acquiring new skills relevant to the green economy. Embrace lifelong learning and explore opportunities for professional development in green fields.
- Businesses: Reassess your business models and operations through a sustainability lens. Invest in green technologies, prioritize energy efficiency, and promote remote working to curb the pollution that comes with commuting and maintaining large properties.
- Governments: Implement policies that incentivize businesses to adopt sustainable practices and invest in green infrastructure projects. Develop comprehensive workforce reskilling and upskilling programs to prepare individuals for the jobs of tomorrow.
